Big Tech ‘Fantasy Economics’ Fails To Demonstrate Weakening UK Copyright Law Will Lead to Growth

Claims by big tech firms and their allies that weakening UK copyright law would boost AI growth and the economy are not supported by their own evidence, according to a new review by Oliver & Ohlbaum.

Their analysis examines three economic modelling reports from Microsoft/Public First, the Computer & Communications Industry Association and the Centre for British Progress, and finds that none of the studies actually demonstrates that introducing a broad copyright exception for AI training would deliver net economic growth for the UK. Also absent is any evidence that degrading copyright would give the UK a competitive advantage internationally.

All three reports wrongly assume that copyright is the main constraint on AI growth, while ignoring more significant barriers such as skills shortages, compute capacity, infrastructure, energy and land. None explains why copyright should be decisive for UK competitiveness, particularly when compared with these factors.

Crucially, none of the studies assesses the impact on the UK’s creative and media sectors, despite creative industries being one of the government’s priority growth sectors and contributing around £146bn in GVA. As a result, the headline growth figures fail to show whether the proposals would benefit the UK overall or simply redistribute value away from rightsholders to US tech firms.

The analysis – commissioned by the News Media Association, Publishers Association, and Publishers’ Licensing Services – also finds that all three studies ignore the rapidly growing market for licensing content for AI training and grounding, and assume – without evidence – that licensing cannot scale. In reality, licensing deals already exist and new collective solutions are being developed. And, as the analysis sets out, licensing supports the transparency and auditability of inputs to AI model, which can support trust and adoption across the economy.

Under the government’s Green Book, regulatory intervention requires evidence of market failure. None of the studies demonstrates such a failure, and none comes close to meeting the government’s standards for economic appraisal. They fail to assess losses in other sectors, impacts on consumers or regions, or the overall net effect on UK investment and GDP.

Owen Meredith, NMA chief executive, said: “O&O’s rigorous analysis exposes Big Tech’s claims that degrading copyright will deliver growth for what they are: fantasy economics. The modelling they rely on ignores the real constraints on AI deployment in the UK and completely fails to account for the catastrophic consequences that weakening copyright would have for our world‑leading creative and media sectors.

“Most astonishingly, these studies simply pretend that licensing is not happening – when in reality a licensing market for AI training and grounding is already emerging and is capable of scaling to meet demand. With clarity and confidence from government in a robust copyright regime, the UK can build a genuinely pro‑growth AI economy in which both AI developers and creators prosper. We do not need to tear down copyright to get there – we just need certainty so we can get on with it.”

Tom West, chief executive of Publishers’ Licensing Services, said: “What this analysis makes clear is that the economic case for weakening copyright has not been demonstrated. The reports reviewed rely on assumptions that overlook both the scale of the UK’s creative industries and the licensing solutions already emerging to support AI development.”

“Licensing is a proven and adaptable framework that enables innovation while ensuring publishers and authors are properly remunerated for the use of their work. We are working with our partners to develop new collective licensing solutions to give AI developers clear, practical routes to access published content lawfully. With the right policy certainty, the UK can support both a thriving AI sector and strong creative industries.”

Dan Conway, chief executive of the Publishers Association, said: “O&O’s independent review provides a comprehensive takedown of the flawed and misleading arguments employed by the tech lobby.

“As the review identifies, not one of the three reports proves that copyright is a barrier to growth, nor considers the impact a copyright exception would have on the UK’s leading knowledge and creative industries. The value of the UK’s established AI licensing market is ignored completely. This is despite proof that publishers have been licensing high-quality content to support AI innovation and scientific progress for years.

“Calls for a commercial TDM exception in the name of AI growth are – yet again – a flimsy excuse for the wholesale transfer of value from UK companies to US big tech for free. The government needs to stick to its guns and back UK business, including publishing and the wider creative industries, through upholding copyright and standing firm against an increasingly egregious tech lobby.”